Cinco De Mayo Market Update for Orange County Real Estate

Greetings from Huntington Beach and the Orange County California Real Estate market. As a realtor representing clients throughout this difficult time it is essential to have boots on the ground data and facts to share with my clients in order to make good sound financial decisions when it comes to buying and selling their home or purchase investment properties.

I go to several sources to get the overall national picture, regional, state and local pictures too. This week I just want to share the data from our local market that will help you see why we know that real estate is going to be just fine when we get on the other side of the Covid-19 crisis. You may be wondering if it is a good time to sell? Or is it a good time to be buying? These questions are asked all the time and I would just say as a buyer, if you are one of the fortunate ones who have a stable job situation, it is a great time to take advantage of 30 year fixed rate interest rates down in the low 3% range. it is fantastic!

If you are a seller considering making a move out of state or even to a different location in your community to get a larger home or even to downsize, I will just tell you that we have low inventory currently that is close to the demand, and will continue to be a factor going out of this crises in the near future, so home values are maintaining, and are predicted by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors by the end of the year to have risen 1-3% as a year over year gain from 2019, which in of itself was a record year, so that works for me.

So here are our local numbers to share:

Orange County Housing Market Summary:

• The active listing inventory increased by 281 homes in the past two-weeks, up 6%, and now totals 4,625, its largest increase of the year. In the past four-weeks, 54% fewer homes were placed on the market compared to the prior 5-year average; thus, COVID-19 is suppressing the inventory. Last year, there were 7,185 homes on the market, 2,560 more than today, a 55% difference.
• Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased by 92 pending sales in the past two-weeks, up 9%, and now totals 1,172, its first increase since the “stay at home” order was placed back in March. In the past 5-years, demand has increased an average of 0%. COVID-19 is continuing to suppress demand; yet, the bottom was reached a couple of weeks ago. Last year, there were 2,653 pending sales, 126% more than today.
• The Expected Market Time for all of Orange County decreased from 121 days to 118, a Balanced Market (between 90 and 120 days). The drop was due to the rise in demand outpacing the rise in the supply. It was at 81 days last year, much better than today.
• For homes priced below $750,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 82 days. This range represents 37% of the active inventory and 53% of demand.
• For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 86 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 19% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
• For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 165 days, a Buyer’s Market (greater than 150 days).
• For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, in the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time decreased from 205 to 192 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 252 to 229 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 363 to 418 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 1,118 to 586 days.
• The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 33% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.
• Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, made up only 1% of all listings and 1.6% of demand. There are only 18 foreclosure s and 26 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County, 44 total distressed homes on the active market, up3 from two-weeks ago. Last year there were 68 total distressed homes on the market, slightly more than today.
• There were 2,383 closed residential resales in March, 5% more than March 2019’s 2,277 closed sales. March marked a 17% increase compared to February 2020. The sales to list price ratio was 98.4% for all of Orange County. Foreclosures accounted for just 0.4% of all closed sales, and short sales accounted for 0.5%. That means that 99.1% of all sales were good ol’ fashioned sellers with equity.

Hopefully that helps you have a sense of confidence in real estate and the value of your home, as well as confidence to be a buyer in today’s market. Should you have questions or want to discuss, mike@mikerains.com or 714-462-2090 office.